July 24, 2024 | 73 words | Politics
It feels like the country woke up Monday morning and breathed a collective sigh of relief, after President Biden finally agreed to step aside the day before. Now, after only a day or two on the campaign trail it seems Kamala Harris has pulled the sword from the stone and is ready to be King. Or Queen, as the case may be.
This election just got a lot more interesting, don’t you think?
Robert J. Cavanaugh, Jr.
bobcavjr@gmail.com
July 18, 2024 | 473 words | Politics
The speech J.D. Vance delivered at last night’s Republican National Convention demonstrated an ability to master a big moment. He was obviously at ease; he took his time and made his points while engaging his audience with a requisite amount of charm. Though it would have been a more effective presentation if he could have managed to tighten things up a bit.
Since the June 13 interview Mr. Vance did with Ross Douthat of The New York Times, I find myself wondering why so many well-known commentators are labeling Vance “a hollow person of little conviction” who is willing to say anything to get ahead. I find him to be the exact opposite of that.
In fact, as others have noted, it seems to me that where Donald Trump has barely-articulated instincts, Vance has actual ideas. Mr. Vance is able, unlike Trump, to put some meat on the bone, so to speak, when it comes to policy.
But I did get a kick out of the way J.D. Vance re-wrote history at times last night, such as when he blamed “Biden-back policies” for sending our jobs overseas and our children to war.
If memory serves NAFTA was a long-advanced initiative favored by Republicans in their ‘global trade’ mode, while finally receiving bi-partisan support in 1992 from President Bill Clinton and other Democrats like Senator Biden, who has always prided himself on “working across the aisle.’
Ditto the 1979 bi-lateral trade agreement with China, and most especially ditto the 2003 Invasion of Iraq. We must surely all remember that particular ‘military intervention’ was the special project of a Republican administration that talked the country into the existence of a fathom cache of “weapons of mass destruction,” after which the voices resisting the subsequent invasion were few and far between.
Beyond that though, the economic populism Mr. Vance is attempting to promote has great appeal to me, even if it is clearly at odds with what Republicans have always taken to be gospel truth on economic policy.
To suggest as Vance did last night that the next Trump administration would not “cater to Wall Street” and would instead “commit to the working man” strains credibility. Or that the last Trump administration “created the greatest economy in history for workers.” Maybe I missed something, but I thought all Trump did last time was pass the largest tax cut in history for the wealthiest Americans, one that made certain members of that club, like Warren Buffet, blush at the largesse.
But I do agree with J. D. Vance’s assertion from the podium that “Wall Street barons crashed the economy” in 2008. To repeat, I am a big fan of the ‘economic populism’ he is trying to introduce into the discussion. I just think he will have an uphill battle doing so within the confines of the Republican Party.
Robert J. Cavanaugh, Jr.
bobcavjr@gmail.com
July 6, 2024 | 887 words | Politics
President Biden did an interview with ABC News’ George Stephanopoulos that was broadcast last night, one week after his disastrous debate performance. He again sounded tired, looked weak, and gave less-than-cogent answers. So instead of quelling concerns, it prompted a fresh round of calls for him to suspend his campaign for re-election.
Maybe the most charitable thing one can say about Mr. Biden at this point is that he is teetering dangerously close to his expiration date as an effective public official.
So just to be clear, I agree with everyone who is pleading for President Biden to reconsider his decision to run again, for the good of the country and the future of democracy. And if in the eleventh hour he does finally change his mind I will be pulling for the Democrats to figure this thing out with a different nominee at the top of the ticket. Because you can mark me down as being firmly in the “anybody but Trump” camp.
But I guess I am a bit impatient about all this and do not want to spend any more time talking about how things should never have gotten to this point, that Mr. Biden’s decline has been apparent for the better part of two years, and in recognition of that decline he should have been more circumspect when deciding to seek a second term.
I agree with all that. And I agree the president’s current condition puts Democrats between a rock and a hard place: Risk handing the election to Trump by sticking with an obviously diminished Joe Biden. Or risk the same result by convincing Mr. Biden to step aside in a last-minute attempt to unearth a brand-new candidate at what could end up being a chaotic nominating convention in August.
But given that Biden continues to state unequivocally he has no plans to step aside, maybe we should be focusing on just what will be required to accommodate his physical and cognitive decline, should he manage to get himself re-elected. Doing so does not amount to denying that decline. Nor does it equate to defending that decline.
For me this is only an exercise in dealing with the reality of President Biden’s refusal to stop. Since he has already won the delegates he needs to secure the nomination, it’s his call.
So then, should he win re-election he will need to surround himself with a cracker-jack inner circle who can bring out his best while shielding him from public encounters he can no longer navigate as deftly as he once did.
This “shielding” has already started, of course, and has lately been reported on in dire tones, as if his staff has been surreptitiously keeping something from the American people. But isn’t this what all staffs do? Don’t all politicians have certain strengths and certain weaknesses?
To have a successful second term an obviously over-the-hill President Biden will need to appoint top-flight people through his administration. But can’t the same be said of any leader of a large organization?
It has recently come to light that Mr. Biden is only sharp between the hours of 10:00 am and 4:00 pm. The wonderful Peggy Noonan quipped in this morning’s Wall Street Journal that world leaders like Xi Jinping and Putin will no doubt limit any future aggression to 12:00 noon eastern standard time, to accommodate our faltering President’s limited schedule.
While this is a funny and clever remark, let us all remember Ms. Noonan cut her teeth as a speechwriter for Ronald Reagan, a highly-regarded former president famous for his afternoon naps and knocking off work at 5:30 pm every day.
Let us also keep in mind the same world leaders we are being told have noticed Mr. Biden’s obvious slippage since just last summer will be the first to comment on how our next president does not know his/her way around foreign affairs half as well as the last guy did. Even though that last guy was an old geezer operating at less-than-full capacity.
I agree with Ms. Noonan that the very things his advisors are telling Biden to do to dispel the doubts – lots of interactive appearances, town halls, tons of interviews – are things he is no longer capable of doing as crisply as he once did. But I do not view such appearances as prerequisites for winning my support in the context of the upcoming election: Trump versus Biden.
And just as a side note, these older people we keep electing to high public office are not bionic. There is only so much energy a person in their 60s and 70s – let alone 80s – can muster, no matter how well they tend to their health or how inspired they may be by their job.
To sum up, I wish Joe Biden was not at the top of the ticket this time around. But as it has been pointed out many times before, the presidency is not a one-man show.
I am prepared to vote for Mr. Biden again, because I will be voting for the totality of the Biden administration, which I think has had a largely successful first term and is headed in the right direction on many fronts. And, because I have seen quite enough of Donald J. Trump, thank you very much.
Robert J. Cavanaugh, Jr.
bobcavjr@gmail.com
July 1, 2024 | 757 words | Politics
President Biden’s performance at last Thursday night’s debate was so bad it prompted immediate calls for him to step down from the ticket, for the good of the country. But by the very next day he had made a full recovery. Appearing at a rally of supporters on Friday he looked and sounded like a different man.
There was an attempt by his handlers mid-way through the debate to deflect attention away from what was happening by tweeting out the President was just recovering from a cold. While that may have been true, it didn’t make any viewer feel better about what they were watching.
My own theory on this, which I expressed during the debate and then had reinforced by his rally performance the next day, is that the debate simply started too late for President Biden’s own good. It was way past his bedtime. I am not trying to be funny here. As someone who likes to go to bed early myself, the 9:00-10:30 pm time slot is not when some of us are at our interactional best.
So why didn’t he take a nap Thursday afternoon, is the obvious question. Well, as we all know, sometimes it is hard to nap, even when you know you’ll need the extra rest to get through an evening’s obligations.
For me the lively rally appearance on Friday renders Mr. Biden’s mumbling, deer-in-the-headlights performance the night before moot. But I realize not everyone is going to feel that way. Especially not the name-brand commentators and blue-chip editorial boards who came out four-square against him on Friday morning, before he got to the rally.
From a practical standpoint, I am not sure who the chorus of critics think could possibly step forward at this point to replace the President at the top of the ticket. For better or worse, folks, this is it: Biden or Trump.
As excruciating as it was to watch, the debate did not show us anything we didn’t already know. Mr. Biden has unfortunately deteriorated to the point where he occasionally slurs his words, loses his train of thought, and is slow in his gait and in his response-time.
It’s just that seeing all those troubling attributes together at one time over the course of 90 minutes, on a prime-time debate stage, was unnerving to say the least. But his first term has been largely successful, and I think his administration is headed in the right direction on many fronts.
His challenger, on the other hand, strikes me as all bluster and bullshit. Donald Trump is like a lot of successful guys in business, expecting to power his was through any sort of complication by the sheer force of his personality.
Out of respect for the tens of millions of people who are prepared to vote for him, I acknowledge Trump has struck a nerve among the electorate and is impressing many people with what they consider to be a no-frills, can-do approach to domestic and international concerns.
But I don’t see the appeal. Especially when watching Mr. Trump attempt to respond to serious questions over the course of 90 minutes, as opposed to performing his carnival act before an adoring crowd. What struck me about his debate performance was that the longer it went, the more he seemed to unravel and make stuff up.
Listening to him champion the accomplishments of his 2017-2020 term and brag about the intractable problems he will magically solve even before taking office for his second term, it reminded me that as a big-time real estate developer, all Donald Trump knows is ‘selling’: Currying the favor of investors and regulators. Anyone who can either facilitate his ambitions or thwart them.
While I suppose the same can be said of any successful politician, unlike most legitimate pols I don’t think Mr. Trump has ever had any coherent policy proscriptions up his sleeve. It’s as though he only got into politics because certain high-level elected officials were starting to openly ridicule what he had become. (I am remembering President Obama, for one, doing so at a White House Correspondents Dinner over a decade ago.)
Having turned into a national punch line is something that irked the publicity-obsessed Trump no end. He became determined to change the narrative and put his detractors in their place – by showing he could do a better job of running the country than any of them.
Given the choice before us I will have no trouble voting to re-elect the aged and increasingly infirm Joe Biden.
Robert J. Cavanaugh, Jr.
bobcavjr@gmail.com
June 25, 2024 | 800 words | Politics, Philosophy
The critics’ ‘book’ on J.D. Vance is now set: He is an unprincipled climber willing to say anything to get ahead. The tar and feathering of Mr. Vance is largely the result of his strange about-face on Donald Trump: from calling him “America’s Hitler” back when no one was taking his political aspirations seriously, to defending Mr. Trump’s curious conduct after the 2020 election.
The June 13 interview Vance did with Ross Douthat in The New York Times referenced this defense in some detail, and various commentators were quick to pounce, citing it as fresh evidence that J.D. Vance is nothing more than a cynical pseudo-populist, an amoral sycophant, and an authoritarian weirdo.
Unlike those critics, though, I think it is possible to find Mr. Vance’s defense of Trump’s conduct after the 2020 election to be “fundamentally unsupported and unpersuasive,” as his old friend Ross Douthat put it, without dismissing everything else J.D. Vance has to say as a newly-minted member of the U.S. Senate.
Writing in The New Times two days after the interview was published, Opinion Columnist Jamelle Boule manages to do just that – find fault with Mr. Vance’s perspective on the controversy over the 2020 election results, without descending into complete character assassination.
Columnist Boule starts his piece by reminding us what Vance told Douthat in the June 13 interview: Donald Trump’s effort to “Stop the Steal” was an attempt to deal with real discrepancies in the 2020 presidential race, and satisfy those voters angry about the conduct of the election. In defending the former president and his allies, Vance took issue with the “political class” for taking this “very legitimate grievance over our most fundamental democratic act as a people, and completely suppressing concerns about it.”
But unlike the angry mob of Trump/Vance detractors, Jamelle Boule does not indulge in a broad, sweeping condemnation of J.D. Vance’s motives. Instead, he drills down on a basic flaw in Vance’s logic, and provides the novice politician – and all of us – with a valuable history lesson.
As Mr. Boule reminds us, in the July 13 interview with Ross Douthat, “Vance briefly analogized Trump’s attempt to contest the election to that of the disputed election of 1876, describing the latter as an example of what should have been done in 2020.”
Boule then spends four paragraphs detailing exactly what went down after the 1876 presidential election between Samuel Tilden and Rutherford Hayes. He concludes by telling his readers:
“The crisis of 1876 is one of the most interesting – and frankly convoluted – episodes in American political history. But it is strange for Senator Vance to cite it as an example of what should have been done in 2020. The big and most important difference is that there was actual fraud and violence and intimidation in the 1876 presidential cycle.”
“… If Trump voters had been attacked, intimidated, and defrauded, then there might be reason to make the comparison with 1876 and demand serious investigation into the integrity of the vote. But as we know from actual litigation carried out over two months, there was no fraud to speak of. The 2020 presidential election was arguably the most secure – and among the most scrutinized – in American history.”
“What Vance calls the ‘legitimate grievances’ of the Jan 6 rioters were actually sour grapes. They lost, they did not like it, and they were determined to change the outcome by any means necessary. There is no reason any of us should respect their tantrum.”
Notice how Jamelle Boule respectfully refutes J.D. Vance argument on this one specific point without having to paint him as a cynical pseudo-populist, an amoral sycophant, or authoritarian weirdo.
Thank you, Mr. Boule, for providing us all with a valuable lesson in our nation’s contentious presidential election history. And I am hopeful no one will appreciate this information more than J.D. Vance, because he strikes me as a principled young man who has only recently chosen public service as a career, and is still getting his feet under him, so to speak.
On a more broadly philosophical note, I think people should be allowed to work things out and get better as they go, even if that means they take the occasional questionable stand along the way, due to a lack of knowledge or limited understanding. This holds double for anyone in public life, in my opinion, since their ‘working out’ process happens on a much larger stage.
None of us is a finished product, after all. The key is being prepared to recalibrate a position once additional information comes to light. Growing up I was taught it is good to openly admit mistakes with a measure of humility, and then most importantly of all, make a concerted effort to learn from them.
Robert J. Cavanaugh, Jr.
bobcavjr@gmail.com
June 17, 2024 | 1,982 words | Politics, Philosophy
You may recognize this as the title of a recent interview Ross Douthat published on June 13 in The New York Times, conducted with the first-term Senator from Ohio and best-selling author of Hillbilly Elegy. Then again, you may not.
I always try to read whatever Mr. Douthat writes, even if some of his in-depth analyses is occasionally above my pay grade. And I was taken with Hillbilly Elegy when it came out in 2016 but have not paid attention to Mr. Vance’s journey since then, other than to wonder from afar about his dramatic change of heart, going from calling Donald Trump “America’s Hitler” to his recent championing of that boisterous and unhinged politician.
Douthat and Vance are roughly the same age and have known each other since before Mr. Vance made that big splash in 2016. In fact, I just saw the two described as “old friends.” I think that level of comfort and familiarity shows in the exchange that has been recorded and published.
You can find the interview at www.rossdouthat.com. Just to whet your appetite I will quote from the introduction:
“The Vance of eight years ago was read with appreciation and gratitude by Trump opponents looking for a window into populism. The Vance of today is despised and feared by many of the same kind of people. His transformation is one of the most striking political stories of the Trump era, and one that’s likely to influence Republican politics even after Trump is gone.”
Reading this longish piece left me with a favorable impression of J.D. Vance. Not because I agree with everything he had to say on a wide range of subjects, because I do not. But he strikes me as a young man of integrity who has the common good as his motivating principle. In other words, after reading this interview Mr. Vance appears to be more than just another blowhard politician shooting his mouth off trying to rile up the base in a blind grab for power.
But judging by the reaction this interview generated, not everyone agrees with me. The very next day (June 14) Jonathan Chait writing for New York magazine started his comments off with this:
Few political phenomena are more overdetermined than J.D. Vance’s endorsement of Donald Trump’s coup attempt. Vance has carried off a cynical but highly successful mid-career switch from venture capitalist to professional pseudo-populist that requires catering to the beliefs of his constituency; he has fallen in with far-right authoritarian intellectuals who long for the destruction of the republic; and he is angling for a spot on Trump’s ticket.”
But was Vance “endorsing” the coup attempt in the interview? Douthat describes Mr. Vance’s remarks on this subject as a “combative (and to my mind, fundamentally unsupported and unpersuasive) defense of Trump’s conduct after the 2020 election.”
Andrew Sullivan on his The Weekly Dish blog focuses on this same aspect of the interview – the Jan 6 coup attempt – saying:
“Excusing political violence, supporting a deranged fantasist, and delegitimizing free and fair elections is the price he (Vance) is prepared to pay for power.”
I agree with Ross Douthat that J.D. Vance is not persuasive in his defense of Donald Trump’s conduct after the 2020 election. But unlike Jonathan Chait and Andrew Sullivan, I do not think Vance is being cynical or calculated about it.
It is worth noting the “2020 election and Jan 6” was the fourth of four interview topics that Mr. Douthat queried Mr. Vance on. There was a whole lot of back-and-forth before the two got to that particular fork in the road.
Indeed, even Andrew Sillivan begins his June 14 response to the interview by acknowledging:
“In Ross Douthat’s engrossing sit-down with his old friend and now Senator J.D. Vance, there is, to begin with, a nuanced discussion of how Trump has upended American politics toward the populist right, which Vance supports for a variety of decent (and, to my mind, largely persuasive) reasons.”
Allow me to quote from this beginning part of the longish interview…
One: After ‘Hillbilly Elegy’
Douthat: So I thought it would be interesting for you to imagine yourself talking to a big “Hillbilly Elegy” fan from 2016, and talk him through how your perspective has changed.
Vance: Let me give you one story: In 2018, I was invited to an event hosted by the Business Roundtable, an organization of C.E.O.s. I was seated next to the C.E.O. of one of the largest hotel chains in the world at dinner. He was almost a caricature of a business executive, complaining about how he was forced to pay his workers higher wages.
He said: “The labor market is super tight. What Trump has done at the border has completely forced me to change the way I interact with my employees.” And then he pivoted to me: “Well, you understand this as well as anybody. These people just need to get off their asses, come to work and do their job. And now, because we can’t hire immigrants, or as many immigrants, we’ve got to hire these people at higher wages.”
The fact that this guy saw me as sympathetic to his problem, and not the problem of the workers, made me realize that I’m on a train that has its own momentum and I have to get off this train, or I’m going to wake up in 10 years and really hate everything that I’ve become. And so I decided to get off that train, and I felt like the only way that I could do that was, in some ways, alienating and offending people who liked my book.
Douthat: Did your perspective on, let’s say, elite liberals change more in that time, or did your perspective on anti-Trump, business-class Republicans change more?
Vance: Oh, both. I think it’s very hard to say which group of people I felt more strongly about. I literally grew up in a family where my grandmother was negotiating with the Meals on Wheels person to give her more food so that both of us could have something to eat. And I was (then finding myself) going to the Sun Valley billionaires boot camp. My life had completely transformed.
The people on the left, I would say, whose politics I am open to – it’s the Bernie Bros. But generally, center-left liberals who are doing very well, and center-right conservatives who are doing very well, have an incredible blind spot about how much their success is built on a system that is not serving people who they should be serving.
Douthat: So you reach a point where you feel like you don’t want to be on the same side as, let’s says, the non-Sanders voting fans of you book. How do you go from there to being actively pro-Trump?
Vance: I was confronted with the reality that part of the reason the anti-Trump conservatives hated Trump was that he represented a threat to a way of doing things in this country that has been very good for them.
Douthat: Is there anything you’ve said that you regret, in the course (of the last 8 years)?
Vance: There are a ton of things I can point to where I can say, “I wish I struck this balance (between offering something very different on foreign policy, on trade, on immigration, while also being sensitive and socially aware) a little bit differently.”
Two: Can Economic Populism Work?
Douthat: Do you think, generally, that there is a comprehensive populist economic agenda?
Vance: Well, I have one. The main thrust of the post-war American order of globalization has involved relying more on more on cheaper labor. The trade issue and the immigration issue are two sides of the same coin: The trade issue is cheaper labor overseas; the immigration issue is cheaper labor at home, which applies upward pressure on a whole host of services, from hospital services to housing and so forth.
The populist vision, at least as it exists in my head, is an inversion of that: applying as much upward pressure on wages and as much downward pressure on the services that people use as possible. We’ve had far too little innovation over the last 40 years, and far too much labor substitution. This is why I think the economics profession is fundamentally wrong about both immigration and about tariffs. Yes, tariffs can apply upward pricing pressure on various things though I think it’s massively overstated – but when you are forced to do more with your domestic labor force, you have all of these positive dynamic effects.
It’s a classic formulation: You raise the minimum wage to $20 an hour, and you will sometimes hear libertarians say this a is a bad thing. “Well, isn’t McDonald’s just going to replace some of the workers with kiosks?” That’s a good thing, because then the workers who are still there are going to make higher wages; the kiosks will perform useful function; and that’s the kind of rising tide that actually lifts all boats. What is not good is you replace the McDonald’s worker from Middletown, Ohio, who makes $17 and hour with an immigrant who makes $15 an hour. And that is, I think, the main thrust of elite liberalism, whether people acknowledge it or not.
*
There is much more to this exchange between Douthat and Vance, and I encourage you to find it and read it in its entirety. Having done so myself, I cannot understand how Jonathan Chait of New York magazine can possibly justify describing J.D. Vance as a “pseudo-populist” who “has carried off a cynical but highly successful career switch from being a venture capitalist” who now merely “caters to the beliefs of his constituency.” Or how Andrew Sullivan of The Weekly Dish can suggest young Mr. Vance has abandoned logic in exchange for political power.
Why must we always demonize a political opponent? Even a politician with whom we disagree most of the time is capable of a reasonable position now and then. But it’s as if once we’ve condemned someone, we must maintain our resolve and continue to do so in every instance. Another behavioral tick is how a political opponent can’t just be ‘wrong’ on a given issue, they also have to be a bad person.
Why does our version of political theater insist we always turn people we disagree with into a nasty, sarcastic punch line?
Mr. Vance comments on the nature of character assassination in politics in the first of half of the Douthat interview, when he says: “The thing I kept thinking about liberalism in 2019 and 2020 is that these guys have all read Carl Schmitt – there’s no law, there’s just power. And the goal here is to get back in power.”
The rabid attacks that each side inflicts upon the other unfortunately seem to be focused on just that – vanquishing the enemy and retaining or getting back into power. Instead of trying to parse out the best policy proscription, or on achieving a compromise most can live with.
I find J.D. Vance to be a fascinating figure, for the very reason Andrew Sullivan mentions at the end of his piece. Vance is in the process of “juggling the legitimate insights of Trumpism with the lying, livid lunacy of Trump himself…” I will be watching to see how Vance navigates all this, moving forward.
Conclusion: The people who loath the idea of a second Trump Presidency just scroll past what J.D. Vance has to say about economic populism, eviscerating him because of his support for Trump’s candidacy. But Mr. Vance’s views on economics can form the basis of valid policy positions, with or without Trump. And even after Trump is gone. It doesn’t really matter who gets that flag to the top of the hill.
Robert J. Cavanaugh, Jr.
bobcavjr@gmail.com